U.S. retail sales data is set for release Tuesday, with forecasts eyed after October’s 0.7% rise. Deere & Co. ($DE), Dell Technologies ($DELL), and Alibaba Group ($BABA) will report quarterly earnings this week, potentially adding volatility as Thanksgiving nears. Here’s what to expect in markets this week as investors weigh new surprises.
Retail Sales Data and Earnings From $DE, $DELL, $BABA in Focus
Markets are closely watching U.S. October retail sales data, due Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, as a critical indicator for consumer momentum heading into the holidays. The September report showed a better-than-expected 0.7% monthly gain (source: U.S. Census Bureau), outperforming the 0.3% consensus. Bloomberg estimates project October sales to slow to 0.3% as consumers face high borrowing costs, with control group retail sales—a key driver of GDP—expected to come in at 0.2%.
This data follows a week where the S&P 500 added 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.7%, buoyed by cooling inflation numbers (source: Reuters, Nov. 21, 2025) and dovish commentary from Federal Reserve officials. With consumer activity remaining robust, attention now turns to earnings from Deere & Co. ($DE), Dell Technologies ($DELL), and Alibaba Group ($BABA), set to report on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the Thanksgiving break.
Deere ($DE) is expected to report Q4 revenue of $10.3 billion and EPS of $7.39, according to LSEG estimates, as analysts focus on whether demand holds for agricultural and construction equipment amid farmer income pressures. Dell ($DELL) analysts see revenue of $23.8 billion and EPS of $1.84 as supply chain and AI-fueled server demand remain central themes. Alibaba ($BABA), reporting on Thursday, could provide key read-throughs for Chinese consumer recovery, with consensus for revenue near RMB 230.5 billion and EPS of RMB 17.12 (source: company filings, FactSet).
Thanksgiving and Retail Results to Drive Stock Market Volatility
This week’s focus on retail sales and key earnings lands as the U.S. stock market heads into a shortened trading calendar for the Thanksgiving holiday. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq will close Thursday, Nov. 27, and operate an abbreviated session Friday. Historically, holiday weeks see lower trading volumes—NYSE volume dropped 38% on average during Thanksgiving week over the last decade (source: Bloomberg), increasing the potential for outsized price swings.
The latest consumer data is pivotal in shaping expectations for holiday shopping season resilience. Last year, U.S. holiday retail sales rose 5.4% year-over-year to $936.3 billion (source: National Retail Federation). For 2025, the NRF forecasts 3–4% growth, moderated by persistent inflation and higher credit card delinquencies, which reached 2.77% in Q3 (Federal Reserve data).
For sectors, consumer discretionary stocks (S&P 500 sector: +2.8% YTD as of Nov. 22) and major retailers depend on continued household resilience. Technology names like Dell ($DELL) remain sensitive to AI-fueled demand cycles while industrials, including Deere ($DE), face softening macro data. Meanwhile, expectations for a recovery in Chinese consumption drive focus on Alibaba ($BABA), as the Hang Seng Index remains volatile (-5.7% YTD; Hong Kong Exchange figures).
Investor Strategies: Manage Risk as Catalysts Collide This Week
For active traders and long-term investors, this week’s convergence of macro and earnings events offers both opportunity and risk. Position-sizing becomes key given the probability of elevated volatility due to reduced liquidity during the holiday period. Investors tracking stock market analysis will note that S&P 500 options implied volatility—measured by the VIX—sat near 15.2 on Friday, historically low but susceptible to sharp moves if retail or tech surprises hit.
Sector allocation is in focus. Overweighting large-cap tech (e.g., Dell, Microsoft) has rewarded so far in 2025, but earnings risk remains. Consumer discretionary ETF flows rose $1.1 billion this quarter (source: ETF.com), signaling increasing bullishness despite Fed rate uncertainty. For investors eyeing China, Alibaba’s results may offer a catalyst for equities linked to Chinese e-commerce and consumer spending, but geopolitical concerns and regulatory overhangs persist. Industrials, particularly Deere, could lag if agricultural orders slow or commodities drop further after corn and soybean futures hit 10-month lows on the CME (source: CME Group, Nov. 21, 2025).
Defensive positioning—a tilt toward utilities or health care—may offer a buffer for conservative accounts as earnings reports and economic releases coincide. Savvy investors are also evaluating global diversification, staying informed on financial news updates and monitoring cryptocurrency market trends for alternative asset volatility amid traditional market cross-currents this week.
Expert Analyst Perspectives: November Market Outlook Remains Cautious
Market strategists from major institutions warn that this week’s confluence of macro and corporate events merits a measured approach. Bank of America analysts note that persistent inflation—consumer prices rose 3.4% in October (Bureau of Labor Statistics data)—may keep the Federal Reserve on hold well into 2026, limiting rate-cut enthusiasm among equity bulls.
Similarly, Morgan Stanley research (Nov. 2025) cautions that the S&P 500’s rebound remains fragile as fourth-quarter earnings forecasts factor in high single-digit EPS growth, leaving little margin for error if consumer data disappoints. For technology, AI demand continues to support hardware names but upcoming results from Dell will test whether enterprise spending is hitting a plateau. On the global front, some analysts believe Alibaba’s results will reveal if the Chinese consumer can offset weakness in exports and property, though ongoing regulatory uncertainty clouds the longer-term narrative.
Consensus remains that elevated volatility and sector rotation may define the final weeks of 2025. Investors are thus advised to guard against overexposure and diversify as event risk remains high, especially during thin holiday trading.
How to Position for What to Expect in Markets This Week
Investors assessing what to expect in markets this week should prioritize flexibility as macro data, earnings results, and seasonal factors converge. Tracking retail sales and responding swiftly to results from Deere ($DE), Dell ($DELL), and Alibaba ($BABA), alongside potential Thanksgiving week volatility, will be critical in managing portfolio risk. Stay current with ThinkInvest’s expert market coverage as new data shapes sector leadership. An adaptable, data-driven approach will help investors navigate a week where surprises are likely and market leadership could shift.
Tags: retail sales, stock market, earnings, Alibaba, Dell, Deere
